St. Louis Development Intelligence — Executive Summary

Recent window 2024–2026 vs prior 2021–2023. Spatial layer = last-30-day geocoded permits (374 building, 656 demolition).

1. Are people moving into North St. Louis?

North-side neighborhoods (north of the Delmar Divide) account for 56/374 (15.0%) of new building permits in the last 30 days, against 477/656 (72.7%) of demolitions. Of 31 north neighborhoods, 8 show positive organic permit-count momentum — and a separate 15 are in active tornado recovery (May 16, 2025 EF3 path), where the permit/value surge is disaster rebuilding, not new investment. Signal: still clearing, not yet building. Demolition outpaces new construction on the north side — land is being readied, but resident inflow lags.

Read carefully: momentum below is permit-count growth (resists value spikes). Neighborhoods flagged ⚠️ are tornado-recovery — their 2025–26 activity is rebuilding the May-2025 damage, so treat them as recovery, not emerging markets.

2. Which streets are heating up?

Top corridors by new building permits (last 30 days): 1. Westminster Pl — 11 building, 1 demo (South) 2. S Kingshighway Blvd — 8 building, 1 demo (South) 3. Columbia Av — 6 building, 1 demo (South) 4. Laclede Av — 6 building, 0 demo (South) 5. Pershing Pl — 6 building, 0 demo (South) 6. Dr Martin Luther King Dr — 5 building, 10 demo (North) 7. Waterman Blvd — 5 building, 1 demo (South) 8. Mcpherson Av — 5 building, 0 demo (South) 9. S Broadway — 4 building, 9 demo (South) 10. Kensington Av — 4 building, 5 demo (South)

3. Which streets / neighborhoods are cooling off?

Neighborhoods with the steepest negative momentum (permit + value decline): 1. Carr Square — momentum -82%, 8 permits 2. Ellendale — momentum -62%, 61 permits 3. Kings Oak — momentum -57%, 14 permits 4. Mount Pleasant — momentum -54%, 64 permits 5. Clayton Tamm — momentum -53%, 81 permits 6. Forest Park Southeast — momentum -53%, 187 permits 7. Downtown West — momentum -51%, 145 permits 8. Riverview — momentum -50%, 7 permits 9. North Riverfront — momentum -46%, 18 permits 10. Hi-Pointe — momentum -46%, 88 permits

4. Where should investors watch?

Emerging (organic growth, not yet built-out — get in early): 1. Tiffany — score 41.6, +69% permits 2. Kosciusko — score 39.7, +30% permits 3. O'Fallon — score 38.1, +46% permits · NORTH 4. Penrose — score 33.3, +45% permits · NORTH 5. Walnut Park West — score 30.7, +107% permits · NORTH 6. Peabody Darst Webbe — score 29.6, +225% permits 7. Tower Grove Park — score 26.8, +50% permits 8. Fairground Neighborhood — score 26.8, +27% permits · NORTH 9. Bellefontaine/Calvary Cemeteries — score 26.4, +100% permits 10. Columbus Square — score 23.6, +175% permits · NORTH

Saturated frontier (built-out, high-value — next move is pushing the edge, e.g. Central West End north toward the Delmar corridor): 1. Central West End — score 99.4, $368M/yr, flat count 2. Tower Grove South — score 65.3, $24M/yr, flat count 3. Downtown — score 52.3, $161M/yr, flat count 4. St. Louis Hills — score 49.9, $22M/yr, flat count 5. Shaw — score 49.8, $15M/yr, flat count

5. Which neighborhoods show early redevelopment signals?

North-side neighborhoods with positive organic permit momentum (excludes tornado recovery): 1. Columbus Square — momentum +175%, score 23.6, 12 permits 2. Walnut Park West — momentum +107%, score 30.7, 66 permits 3. O'Fallon — momentum +46%, score 38.1, 145 permits 4. Penrose — momentum +45%, score 33.3, 110 permits 5. Fairground Neighborhood — momentum +27%, score 26.8, 33 permits 6. Mark Twain — momentum +21%, score 29.9, 56 permits 7. Baden — momentum +17%, score 37.4, 111 permits 8. Hamilton Heights — momentum +7%, score 29.7, 41 permits

Tornado-recovery neighborhoods (rebuilding, watch for organic follow-through): 1. St. Louis Place — value +3722% (rebuild), count -21% 2. Vandeventer — value +758% (rebuild), count -22% 3. The Greater Ville — value +554% (rebuild), count +30% 4. College Hill — value +466% (rebuild), count +75% 5. Kingsway East — value +318% (rebuild), count -33% 6. Old North St. Louis — value +173% (rebuild), count +41% 7. Covenant Blu-Grand Center — value +134% (rebuild), count -30% 8. West End — value +119% (rebuild), count -44%

Top 20 growing neighborhoods (organic permit-count momentum)

  1. Peabody Darst Webbe (+225%) — Growing
  2. Columbus Square (+175%) — Growing
  3. Walnut Park West (+107%) — Growing
  4. Bellefontaine/Calvary Cemeteries (+100%) — Growing
  5. Fairground Park (+100%) — Growing
  6. Tiffany (+69%) — Growing
  7. Tower Grove Park (+50%) — Growing
  8. O'Fallon (+46%) — Growing
  9. Penrose (+45%) — Growing
  10. Kosciusko (+30%) — Growing
  11. Fairground Neighborhood (+27%) — Growing
  12. Mark Twain (+21%) — Steady

Top 20 declining neighborhoods (permit-count momentum)

  1. Carr Square (-82%)
  2. Ellendale (-62%)
  3. Kings Oak (-57%)
  4. Clayton Tamm (-53%)
  5. Forest Park Southeast (-53%)
  6. Downtown West (-51%)
  7. Riverview (-50%)
  8. North Riverfront (-46%)
  9. Hi-Pointe (-46%)
  10. Benton Park West (-45%)
  11. Missouri Botanical Garden (-43%)
  12. LaSalle Park (-42%)
  13. Midtown (-39%)
  14. The Hill (-38%)
  15. Mark Twain I-70 Industrial (-33%)
  16. Lindenwood Park (-32%)

Note: Census population/vacancy/migration layer is inactive. Set CENSUS_API_KEY (free) to quantify actual resident movement and vacancy. The migration read above is inferred from permit activity only.